Cobie And Chris Burniske On How To Navigate A Crypto Bear Market

PancakeSwap is built on an automated market maker system which relies on user-funded liquidity pools and that is why it can work perfectly without a traditional order book from centralised exchanges. However, you said you wanted to end on a high note. I don’t want to end on a high note because this episode was about bear market, and I do want to draw a parallel between what I think might happen soon and what happened with Luna because you saw Luna. You know, it was worth 100 dollars, and it started crashing, and it just went in a straight line downwards, right. I don’t know if anyone’s ever seen something in crypto do that before, but it just kept going down.

But it was mostly insider-owned, and then some was airdropped to people that owned and bought NFTs. And then, you know, the airdrop goes. It’s how do you make your own cryptocurrency worth 10, 20 billion dollars. I don’t remember how much this coin is worth in total, and then one of the people on the APEcoin board….

They can prop it back up again. But if there is sufficient demand may be based on real-world demand like you can use this currency everywhere, perhaps that equilibrium is so large on both sides that it’s hard to break, or it’s hard for it to become one-sided or something. The SUN.io platform is TRON’s first one-stop platform that supports…

That’s like a, for me, worst-case scenario, actually, because what I’d prefer is major flush, pandemonium, chaos, but then I kind of as a…in bear markets, I’m a…basically, a distressed asset buyer, like Placeholder buys in bear markets and sells in bull markets, and it’s quite easy if you really zoom out. It’s not that I enjoy max pain. I also get wrecked, but max pain is huge opportunity, especially if then it recovers to the outside pretty quickly. And so that’s where, for me, personally, as a high-growth investor, this kind of meandering low inflation environment would suck, and that could persist for a few years. That’s kind of my worst-case scenario.

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Again, BTC is a cycle progressed, right, so it’s not even going for the 100x that it got in ’17. If you look at ’21, BTC was roughly at 20x. Yes, it was 70K, so it was like 23x. Now, there’s a bunch of things that make the world as a whole unit very different from Japan, right.

Know that some of these bottoms will be even more horrible because of how much insiders have been allocated to, but people have to contextualize valuations I think to have any grip on where bottom will be here, and we will bottom around when BTC meets bottom, but if BTC and ETH keep testing that bottom, the long tail will just keep bleeding lower. I’ve never really been able to predict what the emerging trends of crypto are going to be. When I see them, I think a lot of the secrets of crypto and how you predict the future. I think they’re hidden in plain sight, and really, it’s just using everything as people build it, use it, give it a go, see if it’s useful to you, see if you can understand how the part works or why people would want it, and then if you think that that’s good and it’s useful to you, then you buy a lot of it. Well, I don’t know the answer, honestly.

Even people that would have been annoyed about talking about the bear market before now have sort of accepted it, and it’s sort of flipped the other way where if you have any sort of bullish or contrarian thoughts on price action, they get annoyed with you now for having a bullish idea so, yes, I think it’s pretty messy. KuCoin is a cryptocurrency exchange based in the Seychelles . Launched in September 2017, KuCoin claims to have 5 million users from over 200 countries and regions. Often known as the People’s Exchange, KuCoin now offers crypto-related services like crypto-to-crypto, fiat-to-crypto, futures trading, staking, lending and so forth.

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• But anyway, one of the investors on the APEcoin board did this proposal, which was like, oh, we should have staking for APEcoin.
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That’s surprising, which is a shock, so yes. But I mean, this price action was going to happen anyway. Roughly, global financial markets are in a bit of a collapse. Netflix is down, what, 90 percent or something. A lot of tech stocks are completely ruined, and Bitcoin’s previous bear markets have never really existed through that kind of a scenario before, so if you go to Chris’ question about how bad can the bear market be, I think people don’t really know yet because previous Bitcoin bear markets have still been in reasonably favorable conditions. It’s always been an equities bull market while Bitcoin’s had its bear market, so this will be the first time that that’s not true if the stock market also continues to struggle.

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But the APEcoin version of staking was just nothing. We’ll pay you if you don’t sell your coins is basically the version of staking they were going for. And then, ETH was more in that 100x realm. ETH was only 60x from a bottom of 80 to about 5000.

I actually want to unpack the macro stuff a little bit more, but I want to just touch on the Stablecoins a little bit more before we do that. So, certainly, that was a precipitating event that made things very bad very quickly. I believe that if that hadn’t have happened there would have been some other kind of event that could have caused, you know, similar falls, but you know, our bottoms like that tend to be liquidation induced or leverage unwinds of some kind that then trigger all these auto sales, trigger all this panic, and then everyone just goes into sell. It’s so fascinating what you just said about Bitcoin, especially, about if it were to go down 80 percent total, it would have to be 50 percent from now, which would mean 15,000 dollars, which then would be below the high from the 2017, 2018 cycle. Welcome to a new world of crypto-friendly banking with Cross River Bank. Request your fiat on/off-ramp solution now at crossriver.com/crypto.

The way I work in judging bottoms and tops is really sentiment-driven, and it’s trying to zoom out and hold myself stable and then just observe what the people around me are doing. You start to get very similar markers of tops and bottoms that you see both digitally and physically, and so late last year I started to get pretty cautious. And then they created a coin, which is…I guess the intention is to be the currency of the metaverse or something. APEcoin was owned, you know, 20 percent by the Yuga Labs founders, 30 percent by…35 percent by the APEcoin DAO, a little bit by investors.

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I think the big…the major assets were just much, much, much bigger this time. Bitcoin was market cap as the top was huge. Ethereum also is much bigger, and I guess as the assets grow, the volatility might just continue to decrease, so you maybe can’t send Bitcoin 20x in a year anymore because of the capital required to do so would just be so large.

If the exit is sufficiently large, then obviously that program to zero thing actually happens. Today’s topic is the crypto bear market. Here to discuss are Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder Ventures, and Jordan Fish, aka Cobie, cofounder of Lido, cofounder of UpOnlyTv, and author of the Cobie Newsletter.

And so, I think this is where the nuances of what is a bear market emerge. I toggle between log and linear scales. If I look on linear scales, the parabolas have clearly been broken. The bull market of last year is broken.

Cobie And Chris Burniske On How To Navigate A Crypto Bear Market

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This is on growth equities like FANGs. They’re phenomenally cheap right now for what their future growth is, and to say that they’re not going to recover, you’re making a bet that the digital is not going to continue to take over in our lives. But I have these two competing ideas in my head, and I don’t know where I sit anymore. To be honest, I don’t think it matters. I’ll just wait for additional information because I don’t really understand how macroeconomic stuff works, and if I tried, I’d get it wrong.

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I have completely no idea, and sort of throughout history I have never known until I’ve seen it. You know, if I try and post rationalize, I can go back in my head to 2013 and be like, yes, I totally saw the future of, and I saw, you know, Uniswap and all these things, but really, I didn’t. I just, you know, I wanted there to be a financial system that worked in the same way Bitcoin worked, and I didn’t really know what that looked like. I’m sure maybe that looks like some parts of decentralized finance, and you know, some parts of decentralized finance are not practically decentralized, so I think we’ve got a long way to go. He was very early and at-scale, you know because early crypto was very different from now. We don’t go through as many exchange values.

Really, what was happening was people were raising money in Ethereum, so people had to buy Ethereum to buy these speculative investments through ICOs in 2017. If you look at the Fed, my view is basically the Fed is much more political than people want to admit. We’re going into midterms towards the end of this year. The Fed has to bring down inflation for midterms, so it’s getting very tough.

But I also think it’s bad that the term staking has just been changed to mean something different. Originally, it did actually mean something important to make a system viable, and staking, which is being paid for not selling your coins doesn’t really do anything within a system. I mean, it maybe influences the price in a positive way. So, the Ethereum Killers was…it https://xcritical.com/ was the same sort of trade as Ethereum was in 2017, where Ethereum sort of was like a little planet, and the planet was growing because more people were coming to live on the planet, and they were building stuff on the planet, right. So, the planet’s economy got better, and the planet’s base currency was worth more because more people were using it for stuff.

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It was more hostile to retail. LocalBitcoins is a peer-to-peer Bitcoin exchange. It is a marketplace where users can buy and sell Bitcoins to and from each other. Users, called traders, create advertisements with the price and the payment method they want to offer.

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Hopefully, by that point we have the ETH merge kicking in, and there’ll start to be new green shoot narratives that are moving into place for crypto, and you also have a lot of builders building cool stuff in crypto right now. It doesn’t happen in a quarter or even half a year, but you can start to see some of that within a year or two. They’re selling bonds into the markets, which actually sucks liquidity out of the market. And you know, there are arguments to be made around how dependent asset prices are in liquidity, and so when you’re sucking liquidity out of the market, it’s almost like a boa constrictor just tightening around assets and compressing them. I think we’ve just reached the point where there’s wide consensus on bear market because it not only takes a while, right, for people to have the firm consensus together. When we’re actually in a bear market probably a little while ago you had really bad price action where you had a lot of…I think, seven to nine weeks after the top, you could sort of begin to have a lot of conviction that things were looking worse, there’s price action really changed, but I think over the last month it’s sort of become unanimous.

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